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Optimal hedging in carbon emission markets using Markov regime switching models

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  • Philip, Dennis
  • Shi, Yukun

Abstract

This paper proposes a Markov regime switching framework for modeling carbon emission (CO2) allowances that combines a regime switching behavior and disequilibrium adjustments in the mean process, along with a state-dependent dynamic volatility process. We find that all regime switching based hedging strategies significantly outperform single regime hedging strategies (both in-sample and out-of-sample), with the newly proposed framework providing the greatest variance reduction and the best hedging performance. Our results indicate that risk managers using state-dependent hedge ratios to manage portfolio risks in carbon emission markets will achieve superior hedging returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip, Dennis & Shi, Yukun, 2016. "Optimal hedging in carbon emission markets using Markov regime switching models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.03.003
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    3. Fortune Ganda & Khazamula Samson Milondzo, 2018. "The Impact of Carbon Emissions on Corporate Financial Performance: Evidence from the South African Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Shuang Lin & Minke Wang & Zhihong Cheng & Fan He & Jiuhao Chen & Chuanhui Liao & Shengda Zhang, 2022. "Risk Management of Fuel Hedging Strategy Based on CVaR and Markov Switching GARCH in Airline Company," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-9, November.
    5. Yu, Xing & Li, Yanyan & Lu, Junli & Shen, Xilin, 2023. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A trade-off between risk and return," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Osuntuyi, Anthony, 2018. "Markov switching GARCH models for Bayesian hedging on energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 545-562.
    7. Park, Jin Suk & Shi, Yukun, 2017. "Hedging and speculative pressures and the transition of the spot-futures relationship in energy and metal markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 176-191.
    8. Hong Qiu & Genhua Hu & Yuhong Yang & Jeffrey Zhang & Ting Zhang, 2020. "Modeling the Risk of Extreme Value Dependence in Chinese Regional Carbon Emission Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Theodoros Syriopoulos & Efthymios Roumpis & Michael Tsatsaronis, 2023. "Hedging Strategies in Carbon Emission Price Dynamics: Implications for Shipping Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-27, September.
    10. Demiralay, Sercan & Gencer, Hatice Gaye & Bayraci, Selcuk, 2022. "Carbon credit futures as an emerging asset: Hedging, diversification and downside risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Chai, Shanglei & Zhou, P., 2018. "The Minimum-CVaR strategy with semi-parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 64-75.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon emission markets; Dynamic hedging; Markov switching models; Dynamic conditional correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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