Phase-Locking and Switching Volatility in Hedge Funds
AbstractThis article aims to investigate the phase-locking and switching volatility in the idiosyncratic risk factor of hedge funds using switching regime beta models. This approach allows the analysis of hedge fund tail event behavior and in particular the changes in hedge fund exposure to various risk factors potentially related to liquidity risk, conditional on different states of the market. We and that in a normal state of the market, the exposure to risk factors could be very low but as soon as the market risk factor captured by the S&P500 moves to a down-market state characterized by negative returns and high volatility, the exposure of hedge fund indexes to the S&P500 and especially to other risk factors changes signi?cantly presenting evidence of phase-locking. We further extend the regime switching model to allow for non-linearity in residuals and show that switching regime models are able to capture and forecast the evolution of the idiosyncratic risk factor in terms of changes from a low volatility regime to a distressed state that are not directly related to market risk factors.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2006_54.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Cannaregio, S. Giobbe no 873 , 30121 Venezia
Web page: http://www.unive.it/dip.economia
More information through EDIRC
Hedge Funds; Risk Management; Regime-Switching Models; Liquidity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2004.
"Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
- Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Measuring the market impact of hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, May.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carl Ackermann & Richard McEnally & David Ravenscraft, 1999. "The Performance of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return, and Incentives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 833-874, 06.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
- Michael Dueker & Christopher J. Neely, 2006.
"Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?,"
2001-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Dueker, Michael & Neely, Christopher J., 2007. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 279-296, February.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen Satchell & Soosung Hwang, 1999.
"The Disappearance of Style in the US Equity Market,"
wp99-18, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Soosung Hwang & Stephen E. Satchell, 2007. "The disappearance of style in the US equity market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 597-613.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
- Garcia, Rene, 1998.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
- René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
- Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2000. "Value-at-Risk: a multivariate switching regime approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 531-554, December.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2003. "How do Regimes Affect Asset Allocation?," NBER Working Papers 10080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-20, June.
- Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
- Gupta, Anurag & Liang, Bing, 2005. "Do hedge funds have enough capital? A value-at-risk approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 219-253, July.
- Brealey, Richard A & Kaplanis, Evi, 2001. "Hedge Funds and Financial Stability: An Analysis of Their Factor Exposures," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 161-87, Summer.
- Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geraldine Ludbrook).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.