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Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes

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  • Carol Alexander

    (ISMA Centre, University of Reading, UK)

  • Anca Dimitriu

    (ISMA Centre, University of Reading, UK)

Abstract

This paper examines, from a market efficiency perspective, the performance of a simple dynamic equity indexing strategy based on cointegration. A consistent 'abnormal' return in excess of the benchmark is demonstrated over different time horizons and in different real world and simulated stock markets. A measure of stock price dispersion is shown to be a leading indicator for the abnormal return and their relationship is modelled as a Markov switching process of two market regimes. We find that the entire abnormal return is associated with the high volatility regime as the indexing model implicitly adopts a strategic position that pays off during market crashes, whilst effectively tracking the benchmark in normal market circumstances. Therefore we find no evidence of market inefficiency. Nevertheless our results have implications for equity fund managers: we show how, without any stock selection, solely through a smart optimization that has an implicit element of market timing, the benchmark performance can be significantly enhanced. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 213-231

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:10:y:2005:i:3:p:213-231

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References

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
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  7. Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1990. " Anomalous Price Behavior around Repurchase Tender Offers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 455-77, June.
  8. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers, York (Canada) - Department of Economics 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Brooks, Chris & Persand, Gita, 2001. "The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 11-29.
  11. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
  12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Renato Bruni & Francesco Cesarone & Andrea Scozzari & Fabio Tardella, 2012. "A new stochastic dominance approach to enhanced index tracking problems," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3460-3470.
  2. Klaus Grobys, 2010. "Correlation versus Cointegration: Do Cointegration based - Index-Tracking Portfolios perform better? Evidence from the Swedish Stock-Market," Zeitschrift für Nachwuchswissenschaftler - German Journal for Young Researchers, Zeitschrift für Nachwuchswissenschaftler - German Journal for Young Researchers, Zeitschrift für Nachwuchswissenschaftler - German Journal for Young Researchers, vol. 2(1), pages 72-78, May.
  3. Selim Aren & Lutfihak Alpkan & Bulent Sezen & Ziya Alper Guncu, 2011. "Drivers of firms’ debt ratios: evidence from Taiwanese and Turkish firms," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, May.
  4. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2006. "Phase-Locking and Switching Volatility in Hedge Funds," Working Papers 2006_54, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  5. Canakgoz, N.A. & Beasley, J.E., 2009. "Mixed-integer programming approaches for index tracking and enhanced indexation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 384-399, July.
  6. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
  7. Hurvich, Cliiford & Wang, Yi, 2006. "A Pure-Jump Transaction-Level Price Model Yielding Cointegration, Leverage, and Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," MPRA Paper 1413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  9. Renato Bruni & Francesco Cesarone & Andrea Scozzari & Fabio Tardella, 2013. "No arbitrage and a linear portfolio selection model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1247-1258.
  10. Klaus Grobys, 2012. "Active PortofolioManagement in the Presence of Regime Switching: What Are the Benefits of Defensive Asset Allocation Strategies If the Investor Faces Bear Markets?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 015-031, June.
  11. Klaus Grobys, 2011. "Are Different National Stock Markets Driven by the Same Stochastic Hidden Variable?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 3(1), pages 021-030, June.
  12. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Detecting Switching Strategies in Equity Hedge Funds," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, Reading University icma-dp2005-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  13. Carol Alexander & Andreas Kaeck, 2006. "Regimes in CDS Spreads: A Markov Switching Model of iTraxx Europe Indices," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, Reading University icma-dp2006-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.

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