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Reinvestigating the Oil Price–Stock Market Nexus: Evidence from Chinese Industry Stock Returns

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  • Sheng Fang
  • Xinsheng Lu
  • Paul G. Egan

Abstract

The present study investigates the influence of international oil prices on China's stock market returns across 29 different industries. The paper attempts to account for any structural breaks and nonlinearity in this relationship. The results reveal that the effect of changes in the international price of oil on stock returns differs substantially across industries. The stock returns of the coal, chemical, mining and oil industries are found to be positively affected by crude oil price movements. Conversely, electronics, food manufacturing, general equipment, pharmaceuticals, retail, rubber and vehicle industries are found to be negatively affected by movements in the price of crude oil. The results of the estimations also suggest that the majority of Chinese industries have been significantly affected by oil prices since 2004. The influence of international oil prices on Chinese stocks also has a stronger effect in the presence of high volatility but the effect varies across industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng Fang & Xinsheng Lu & Paul G. Egan, 2018. "Reinvestigating the Oil Price–Stock Market Nexus: Evidence from Chinese Industry Stock Returns," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 26(3), pages 43-62, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:26:y:2018:i:3:p:43-62
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12242
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    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages for Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Stocks," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    2. Bin Mo & Juan Meng & Guannan Wang, 2023. "Risk Dependence and Risk Spillovers Effect from Crude Oil on the Chinese Stock Market and Gold Market: Implications on Portfolio Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, February.

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