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Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador

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  • Carlos Díaz Alvarado
  • Alejandro Izquierdo

    ()

  • Ugo Panizza

Abstract

This paper surveys the recent literature on fiscal sustainability, with particular emphasis on emerging market countries. It discusses the main elements that differentiate emerging market countries from industrial countries and then discusses how probabilistic models can help to evaluate fiscal sustainability in an uncertain environment. Based on this discussion, the paper uses Ecuador to illustrate an application of the probabilistic model, and of the framework to evaluate the impact of shocks to current account financing on sustainability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4371.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4371

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References

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  1. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," IDB Publications 6467, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
  3. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  6. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  8. repec:idb:brikps:4178 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Oliver Hart, 2003. "Incomplete Contracts and Public Ownership: Remarks, and an Application to Public-Private Partnerships," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C69-C76, March.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 8939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  14. Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Luis Ignacio Jácome, 2004. "The Late 1990's Financial Crisis in Ecuador," IMF Working Papers 04/12, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Emiliano Basco & Tomás Castagnino & Sebastián Katz & Sebastián Vargas, 2007. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, Regime Change and High Volatility," BCRA Working Paper Series 200725, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  2. repec:idb:brikps:22178 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Emiliano Basco & Tomás Castagnino & Sebastián Katz & Sebastián Vargas (ed.), 2007. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, Regime Change and High Volatility," BCRA Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 04, June.
  4. Simarmata, Djamester A., 2007. "Keberlanjutan Fiskal di Indonesia
    [Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia]
    ," MPRA Paper 41344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos
    [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]
    ," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Canagarajah, Sudharshan & Brownbridge, Martin & Paliu, Anca & Dumitru, Ionut, 2012. "The challenges to long run fiscal sustainability in Romania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5927, The World Bank.
  7. Markus Eller & Jarmila Urvová, 2012. "How Sustainable Are Public Debt Levels in Emerging Europe?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.

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