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Inferring the private information content of trades: a regime-switching approach

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Author Info
Ken Nyholm (European Central Bank, Risk Management Division, Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Abstract

This paper presents an empirical model for inferring the private information content of trades at the transaction level. The trade-indicator model of Glosten and Harris (1988) is extended to a two-state regime-switching setting, and the model is estimated using tick-by-tick data from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The specialist is found to react in accordance with the proposed model. Bid-ask quotes set after the execution of a trade reflect the conjectured information content of that particular trade. Based on the estimated model four empirical results emerge: (a) the suggested regime-switching model fit data well; (b) the reverse J-shaped pattern of intra-daily quoted spreads is shown to agree with the clustering of costs incurred by the specialist through trading with better-informed agents; (c) on average 9% of all trades are found to reveal private: information to the specialist; (d) results regarding the trading volume of informed traders support the stealth trading hypothesis suggested by Barclay and Warner (1993). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.707
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2003-v18.4/
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 457-470
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:18:y:2003:i:4:p:457-470

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  1. McInish, Thomas H & Wood, Robert A, 1992. " An Analysis of Intraday Patterns in Bid/Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 753-64, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Madhavan, Ananth & Sofianos, George, 1998. "An empirical analysis of NYSE specialist trading1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 189-210, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hasabrouck, Joel & Sofianos, George, 1993. " The Trades of Market Makers: An Empirical Analysis of NYSE Specialists," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1565-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
  6. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1993. " An Analysis of Changes in Specialist Inventories and Quotations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1595-1628, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Goodwin, Thomas H, 1993. "Business-Cycle Analysis with a Markov-Switching Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 331-39, July.
  13. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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