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Does oil price uncertainty affect energy use?

Author

Listed:
  • Kuper, Gerhard H.
  • Soest, Daan P. van

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

Theory predicts that the presence of fixed costs affects the relationship between energy use and energy price changes, as the firm's output and investment decisions respond differently to energy price increases and decreases. The asymmetry in response to energy price changes is exacerbated by uncertainty with respect to future energy prices, but to date the empirical literature does not explicitly take uncertainty into account. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we develop a new measure of energy price uncertainty. Second, we apply the measure to explain energy use in 8 OECD countries between 1978 and 1996, trying to identify whether indeed energy price uncertainty effects the asymmetry resulting from changes in energy use.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuper, Gerhard H. & Soest, Daan P. van, 2003. "Does oil price uncertainty affect energy use?," CCSO Working Papers 200306, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugccs:200306
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    File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/249569434
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    Cited by:

    1. Dobroschke, Stephan, 2012. "Energieeffizienzpotenziale und staatlicher Lenkungsbedarf," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 12-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. Muhammad Jawad & Munazza Naz, 2019. "Pre and post effects of Brexit polling on United Kingdom economy: an econometrics analysis of transactional change," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-267, January.
    3. Gülsüm Akarsu, 2017. "Analyzing the impact of oil price volatility on electricity demand: the case of Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 371-388, December.
    4. Ali Arababadi & Stephan Leyer & Joachim Hansen & Reza Arababadi, 2021. "Characterizing the Theory of Spreading Electric Vehicles in Luxembourg," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Yang, Ming & Nguyen, François & De T'Serclaes, Philippine & Buchner, Barbara, 2010. "Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1436-1447, March.
    6. Huawei, Tian, 2022. "Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Duong T Le, 2015. "Ex-ante Determinants of Volatility in the Crude Oil Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Kasparian, Jérôme, 2009. "Contribution of crude oil price to households' budget: The weight of indirect energy use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 111-114, January.
    9. Jan Jacobs & Gerard Kuper & Daan van Soest, 2009. "On the effect of high energy prices on investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(27), pages 3483-3490.
    10. Slaibi, Ahmad & Chapman, Duane & Daouk, Hazem, 2005. "An Econometric Evaluation of A Geopolitical Theory of Oil Price Behavior," Working Papers 127131, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    11. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Forecasting the good and bad uncertainties of crude oil prices using a HAR framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 315-327.
    12. Patricia Iyore Ajayi & Adedayo Emmanuel Longe & Oladayo Ayokunle Omitogun & Shehu Muhammad, 2019. "Oil Price Shocks and Energy Consumption in Nigeria," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 4, pages 275-293.
    13. Dominik Kryzia & Michał Kopacz & Katarzyna Kryzia, 2020. "The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    15. Halova Wolfe, Marketa & Rosenman, Robert, 2014. "Bidirectional causality in oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 325-331.
    16. Aaron D. Smallwood, 2022. "Inference in Misspecified GARCH‐M Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 334-355, April.
    17. Chi, Junwook, 2016. "Long- and short-run asymmetric responses of motor-vehicle travel to fuel price variations: New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 126-134.
    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Marco Chi Keung, 2015. "Structural breaks and electricity prices: Further evidence on the role of climate policy uncertainties in the Australian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 176-182.
    19. Chiah, Mardy & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Zhong, Angel, 2022. "Energy price uncertainty and the value premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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