Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yang, Ming
  • Nguyen, François
  • De T'Serclaes, Philippine
  • Buchner, Barbara
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35Â GW from 2007 to 2020. The country's hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China's uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China's wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4XVRM2W-3/2/94a258d03c9e25b234d56e91dbc0d67d
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 1436-1447

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1436-1447

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Climate change Energy policy Wind energy economics;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Lema, Adrian & Ruby, Kristian, 2007. "Between fragmented authoritarianism and policy coordination: Creating a Chinese market for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3879-3890, July.
    2. Anger, Niels & Böhringer, Christoph & Moslener, Ulf, 2007. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism: The Role of Investment Barriers and Regulations," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-026, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    3. Gerard H. Kuper & Daan P. van Soest, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
    4. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    5. Lin, Tyrone T. & Ko, Chuan-Chuan & Yeh, Hsin-Ni, 2007. "Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2426-2432, April.
    6. Geoffrey Rothwell, 2006. "A Real Options Approach to Evaluating New Nuclear Power Plants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 87-54.
    7. Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
    8. Lewis, Joanna I. & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Fostering a renewable energy technology industry: An international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1844-1857, March.
    9. Enzensberger, N. & Wietschel, M. & Rentz, O., 2002. "Policy instruments fostering wind energy projects--a multi-perspective evaluation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 793-801, July.
    10. BRECHET, Thierry & GERMAIN, Marc & VAN STEENBERGHE, Vincent, 2004. "The Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol and the `low-hanging fruits' issue," CORE Discussion Papers 2004081, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    11. Resnier, Martin & Wang, Can & Du, Pengfei & Chen, Jining, 2007. "The promotion of sustainable development in China through the optimization of a tax/subsidy plan among HFC and power generation CDM projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4529-4544, September.
    12. Michaelowa, Axel, 2005. "CDM: Current status and possibilities for reform," HWWI Research Papers 4-3, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    13. Marreco, Juliana de Moraes & Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia, 2006. "Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3749-3756, December.
    14. Michaelowa, Axel & Jusen, Asuka & Krause, Karsten & Grimm, Bernhard & Koch, Tobias, 2000. "CDM projects in China's energy supply and demand sectors - opportunities and barriers," HWWA Discussion Papers 90, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Lam, J.C.K. & Woo, C.K. & Kahrl, F. & Yu, W.K., 2013. "What moves wind energy development in China? Show me the money!," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 423-429.
    2. Tian Tang & David Popp, 2014. "The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China’s CDM Wind Projects," NBER Working Papers 19921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tian Tang & David Popp, 2014. "The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects," CESifo Working Paper Series 4705, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Qing Pei & Lanlan Liu & David Zhang, 2013. "Carbon emission right as a new property right: rescue CDM developers in China from 2012," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 307-320, September.
    5. Liu, Xuemei, 2013. "The value of holding scarce wind resource—A cause of overinvestment in wind power capacity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 97-100.
    6. Zhao, Xiaoli & Zhang, Sufang & Yang, Rui & Wang, Mei, 2012. "Constraints on the effective utilization of wind power in China: An illustration from the northeast China grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4508-4514.
    7. Zhao, Zhen-yu & Sun, Guang-zheng & Zuo, Jian & Zillante, George, 2013. "The impact of international forces on the Chinese wind power industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 131-141.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1436-1447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.