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Biomass and CCS: The influence of the learning effect

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  • Audrey Laude

    ()
    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans)

  • Christian Jonen

    ()
    (Mathematisches Institut Köln - Universität zu Köln)

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    Abstract

    Combiner la production de Bioénergies avec les technologies de Capture et Stockage du Carbone (BECSC) peut permet d'obtenir des émissions négatives lors de la production de bioéthanol. Cependant, les coûts de l'étape de capture sont très élevés et réduisent la rentabilité. Cet article s'intéresse à deux incertitudes : le progrès technique et le prix du carbone, via une approche par les options réelles. Nous comparons les cas d'un développement rapide ou lent du CSC. Un progrès technique précoce peut découler d'une politique intensive d'investissement dans la Recherche et Développement ou dans des projets pilote, mais les réductions de coûts associées demeurent incertaines. Nous montrons que le progrès technique stimule l'investissement dans les émissions négatives mais pas avant 2030. Dans un deuxième ensemble d'expériences, nous appliquons une subvention qui rémunère les émissions séquestrées plutôt qu'évitées. En d'autres termes, cet instrument économique ne prend pas en compte les émissions indirectes issues de l'ajout de la chaîne CSC elle-même, mais il comptabilise toutes les émissions stockées par le processus. A l'inverse des innovations technologiques, cette subvention est sûre pour l'investisseur. La probabilité d'investissement est beaucoup plus élevée et le projet peut être réalisé avant 2030. Cependant, les émissions négatives dans le domaine des biocarburants via les BECSC ne semblent pas être une solution de court terme dans notre cadre d'étude, qu'elle que soit la tendance de prix testée.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00829779.

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    Date of creation: 29 Nov 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829779

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    Related research

    Keywords: Options réelles; Progrès technique; Bioénergies et Capture; Transport et Stockage du Carbone.;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2008. "Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 138-162, January.
    2. Grubler, Arnulf & Messner, Sabine, 1998. "Technological change and the timing of mitigation measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 495-512, December.
    3. Read, Peter & Lermit, Jonathan, 2005. "Bio-energy with carbon storage (BECS): A sequential decision approach to the threat of abrupt climate change," Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(14), pages 2654-2671.
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    6. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
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    11. Junginger, Martin & de Visser, Erika & Hjort-Gregersen, Kurt & Koornneef, Joris & Raven, Rob & Faaij, Andre & Turkenburg, Wim, 2006. "Technological learning in bioenergy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 4024-4041, December.
    12. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2992-3015, November.
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    14. Söderholm, Patrik & Sundqvist, Thomas, 2007. "Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 2559-2578.
    15. Murto, Pauli, 2007. "Timing of investment under technological and revenue-related uncertainties," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1473-1497, May.
    16. Jamasb, T. & Köhler, J., 2007. "Learning Curves For Energy Technology and Policy Analysis: A Critical Assessment," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 0752, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Szolgayova, Jana & Fuss, Sabine & Obersteiner, Michael, 2008. "Assessing the effects of CO2 price caps on electricity investments--A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3974-3981, October.
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