Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time?: New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Wang, Yudong
  • Liu, Li
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper extends the work in Tabak and Cajueiro [Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time, Energy Economics 29 (2007) 28-36] and Alvarez-Ramirez et al. [Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: a detrended fluctuation analysis approach, Energy Economics 30 (2008) 2645-2656]. In this paper, we test for the efficiency of WTI crude oil market through observing the dynamic of local Hurst exponents employing the method of rolling window based on multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical results show that short-term, medium-term and long-term behaviors were generally turning into efficient behavior over time. However, in this way, the results also show that the market did not evolve along stable conditions for long times. Multiscale analysis is also implemented based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. We found that the small fluctuations of WTI crude oil market were persistent; however, the large fluctuations had high instability, both in the short- and long-terms. Our discussion is also extended by incorporating arguments from the crude oil market structure for explaining the different correlation dynamics.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V7G-4XWMNCY-1/2/12a0a00079d560c7eaa4a1ebb305ab9a
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 987-992

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:5:p:987-992

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: WTI crude oil market Market efficiency Multiscale Detrended fluctuation analysis;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    2. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
    3. Dermot Gately & Hiliard G. Huntington, 2002. "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-55.
    4. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    5. Serletis, Apostolos & Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam, 2007. "The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 325-332.
    6. John C.B. Cooper, 2003. "Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(1), pages 1-8, 03.
    7. Jiang, J. & Ma, K. & Cai, X., 2007. "Non-linear characteristics and long-range correlations in Asian stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 378(2), pages 399-407.
    8. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    9. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
    10. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
    11. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo, 2008. "Time-varying Hurst exponent for US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(24), pages 6159-6169.
    12. Uritskaya, Olga Y. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Quantifying multiscale inefficiency in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3109-3117, November.
    13. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Cisneros, Myriam & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Soriano, Angel, 2002. "Multifractal Hurst analysis of crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 651-670.
    14. Podobnik, Boris & Fu, Dongfeng & Jagric, Timotej & Grosse, Ivo & Eugene Stanley, H., 2006. "Fractionally integrated process for transition economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 362(2), pages 465-470.
    15. Serletis, Apostolos & Andreadis, Ioannis, 2004. "Random fractal structures in North American energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 389-399, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:5:p:987-992. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.