Long memory in energy futures prices
AbstractThis paper extends the work in Serletis [Serletis, A. (1992). Unit root behavior in energy futures prices. The Energy Journal 13, 119-128] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. It tests for fractional integrating dynamics in energy futures markets utilizing more recent data (from January 3, 1994 to June 30, 2005) and a new semi-parametric wavelet-based estimator, which is superior to the more prevalent GPH estimator (on the basis of Monte-Carlo evidence). We find new evidence that energy prices display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence, characterized by the variance of each series being dominated by high frequency (low wavelet scale) components.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Serletis, A. & Gogas, P., 1998.
"The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic,"
98-10, Calgary - Department of Economics.
- Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 1999. "The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 83-103.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1999. "The North American natural gas liquids markets are chaotic," MPRA Paper 1576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Apostolos Serletis, 1992.
"Unit Root Behavior in Energy Futures Prices,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 119-128.
- Jensen, Mark J, 1999.
"Using wavelets to obtain a consistent ordinary least squares estimator of the long-memory parameter,"
39152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mark J. Jensen, 1997. "Using Wavelets to Obtain a Consistent Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter," Econometrics 9710002, EconWPA.
- William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & Demitre Serletis, 2005.
"Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Real Systems,"
WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS
200517, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2005.
- John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
- Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004.
"Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures,"
NBER Working Papers
10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2011. "A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3754-3766.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
- Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Lahiani, Amine & Lévy, Aldo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012.
"Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 283-293.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Amine Lahiani & Khuong Nguyen Duc, 2010. "Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models," Working Papers 13, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Amine Lahiani, 2010. "Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models," Working Papers hal-00507831, HAL.
- Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu, 2013. "Efficiency of Crude Oil Futures Markets: New Evidence from Multifractal Detrending Moving Average Analysis," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 393-414, December.
- Xu, Weijun & Sun, Qi & Xiao, Weilin, 2012. "A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1585-1591.
- Wen-Jie Xie & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2012. "Extreme value statistics and recurrence intervals of NYMEX energy futures volatility," Papers 1211.5502, arXiv.org.
- Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
- Lin, Xiaoqiang & Fei, Fangyu, 2013. "Long memory revisit in Chinese stock markets: Based on GARCH-class models and multiscale analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 265-275.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thanh Huong Dinh, 2010.
"Time-varying Predictability in Crude Oil Markets: The Case of GCC Countries,"
- El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Huong Dinh, Thanh & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4371-4380, August.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2011. "Integration properties of disaggregated solar, geothermal and biomass energy consumption in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5474-5479, September.
- Naccache, Théo, 2011. "Oil price cycles and wavelets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 338-352, March.
- Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Long memory in energy futures markets: Further evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 261-272.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Amine Lahiani, 2013.
"On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets,"
- Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 832-844.
- Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "What can we learn from the history of gasoline crack spreads?: Long memory, structural breaks and modeling implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 349-360.
- Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Oil Prices: Persistence and Breaks," Faculty Working Papers 09/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li, 2010. "Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time?: New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 987-992, September.
- Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
- Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2010. "Long-range dependence in the volatility of commodity futures prices: Wavelet-based evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 79-90.
- El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.