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Nelson-Plosser Revisited: the ACF Approach

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  • Karim Abadir
  • Giovanni Caggiano
  • Gabriel Talmain

Abstract

We detect a new stylized fact about the common dynamics of macroeconomic and financial aggregates. The rate of decay of the memory (or persistence) of these series is depicted by their autocorrelation functions (ACFs), and they all fit very closely a parsimonious four-parameter functional form that we present. Not only does our formula fit the data better than the ones that arise from autoregressive models, but it also yields the correct shape of the ACF. This can help policymakers understand the lags with which an economy evolves, and its turning points.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2005_7.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_7

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mark J. Holmes & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1315, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  2. Gianluca, MORETTI & Giulio, NICOLETTI, 2008. "Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  3. Abadir, Karim & Talmain, Gabriel, 2005. "Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series," Working Paper Series 0525, European Central Bank.
  4. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2012. "Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro finance," Working Paper Series 25_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  5. Karim M. Abadir, 2010. "Is the Economic Crisis Over (and Out)?," Professional Reports 02_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  6. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2011. "On the dynamics of international inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 189-191, August.
  7. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  8. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2014. "Asymmetry and Lilien’s Sectoral Shifts Hypothesis: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Paper Series 15_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  9. Karim M. Abadir, 2013. "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics? Examples From Finance and Economics," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 5(4), pages 231-248, December.

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