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Nelson-Plosser Revisited: the ACF Approach

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Author Info
Karim Abadir
Giovanni Caggiano
Gabriel Talmain

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Abstract

We detect a new stylized fact about the common dynamics of macroeconomic and financial aggregates. The rate of decay of the memory (or persistence) of these series is depicted by their autocorrelation functions (ACFs), and they all fit very closely a parsimonious four-parameter functional form that we present. Not only does our formula fit the data better than the ones that arise from autoregressive models, but it also yields the correct shape of the ACF. This can help policymakers understand the lags with which an economy evolves, and its turning points.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2005_7.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_7

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Web page: http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/economics/

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Technology shocks and the business cycle: On empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 703-719, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Comin, D. & Gertler, M., 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  8. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, . "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel," Discussion Papers 01/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
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  9. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  11. Marcus J. Chambers, . "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Discussion Papers 437, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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  12. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  2. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2005. "Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series," Working Paper Series 525, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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