The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic
AbstractIn this paper we test for deterministic chaos(i.e., nonlinear deterministic processes which look random) in seven Mont Belview, Texas hydrocarbon markets, using monthly data from 1985:1 to 1996:12 -- the markets are those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naphta, crude oil, and natural gas. In doing so, we use the Lyapunov exponent estimator of Nychka, Ellner, Gallant and McCaffrey (1992). We conclude that there is evidence consistent with chaotic nonlinear generation process in all five natural gas liquids markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Calgary - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 98-10.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 1998
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PRICES ; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ; FINANCIAL MARKET ; ENERGY;
Other versions of this item:
- Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 1999. "The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 83-103.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1999. "The North American natural gas liquids markets are chaotic," MPRA Paper 1576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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- Serletis, Apostolos & Andreadis, Ioannis, 2004. "Random fractal structures in North American energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 389-399, May.
- Wu, Y. & Zhang, D.Z., 2007. "Demand fluctuation and chaotic behaviour by interaction between customers and suppliers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 250-259, May.
- Barkoulas, John T. & Chakraborty, Atreya & Ouandlous, Arav, 2012. "A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 584-591.
- Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
- Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
- Xu, Weijun & Sun, Qi & Xiao, Weilin, 2012. "A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1585-1591.
- Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
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