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A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes

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  • Xu, Weijun
  • Sun, Qi
  • Xiao, Weilin

Abstract

Owing to the vague fluctuation of energy prices from time to time, a new energy model, which considers both the mean-reverting behavior and the long memory property, is proposed in this paper. Since the problem of estimating parameters, in discrete time for this model, plays a central role in forecast inference, the problem of estimating the unknown parameters has been dealt with for the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process observed discretely. The asymptotic properties of these estimates are also provided. The numerical simulation results confirm the theoretical analysis and show that our method is effective. To show how to apply our approach in realistic contexts, an empirical study of energy in China, namely Daqing crude oil, is presented. The empirical results seem reasonable when compared to the real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Weijun & Sun, Qi & Xiao, Weilin, 2012. "A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1585-1591.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1585-1591
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.009
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    2. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dias, José Carlos & Nunes, João Pedro Vidal, 2021. "Modeling energy prices under energy transition: A novel stochastic-copula approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Zhang, Pu & Xiao, Wei-lin & Zhang, Xi-li & Niu, Pan-qiang, 2014. "Parameter identification for fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes based on discrete observation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 198-203.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy model; Maximum likelihood estimation; Malliavin calculus; Fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes; Monte Carlo simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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