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Unit and Fractional Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Changes with an Application to the Brazilian Inf

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  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

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Abstract

In this article we analyse the monthly structure of the Brazilian inflation rate by means of using fractionally integrated techniques. This series is characterized by strong government interventions to bring inflation to a low level. We use a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994) which permits us to model the underlying dynamics of the series in terms of an I(d) statistical model, with the government interventions being specified in terms of dummy variables. The results show that the series can be well described in terms of an I(0.75) process with some of the interventions having little impact on the series.

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File URL: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom/files/workingpapersmodule/@random437a056c22796/1136802589_wp1905.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 19/05.

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Length: 24 pages pages
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Publication status: Published, Empirical Economics, 2005, vol. 30: pp. 193-207
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1905

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Web page: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom

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  1. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4d60t4jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
  4. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  6. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  7. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114.
  8. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
  10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  12. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
  13. L. A. Gil-Alaña & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
  15. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  16. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  17. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  18. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2001. "A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, December.
  19. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
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