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Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the Brazilian inflation rate

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  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A.
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    Abstract

    We analyse in this article the monthly structure of the Brazilian inflation rate by means of fractionally integrated techniques. This series is characterized by strong government interventions to bring inflation to a low level. We use a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994) which allow us to model the underlying dynamic of the series in terms of I(d) statistical models, while the government interventions are specified in terms of dummy variables. The results show that the series can be described in terms of an I(0.75) process with some of the interventions having little impact on the series. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2001,67.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200167

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    Keywords: Long memory; Fractional integration;

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    1. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1994. "The Great Wars, The Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About an Old Stylized Fact," NBER Working Papers 4752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Demery, D & Duck, N W, 1992. "Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1094-101, September.
    3. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
    4. L. A. Gil-Alaña & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Terence C. Mills, 1994. "Infrequent Permanent Shocks And The Unit Root In Quarterly Uk Output," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 91-94, 01.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    7. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    8. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    9. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    10. Krol, Robert, 1992. "Trends, Random Walks and Persistence: An Empirical Study of Disaggregated U.S. Industrial Production," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 154-59, February.
    11. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
    12. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
    13. Apostolos Serletis, 1992. "The Random Walk in Canadian Output," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 392-406, May.
    14. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Gadea, Maria Dolores & Sabate, Marcela & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2004. "Structural breaks and their trace in the memory: Inflation rate series in the long-run," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 117-134, April.

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