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Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence

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  • Demery, D
  • Duck, N W

Abstract

In this paper, the authors show that estimates of J. H. Cochrane's (1988) suggested measure of the persistence of fluctuations in real output will be biased if there is a single break in the mean rate of growth of output. The authors then show that the major findings of J. Y. Campbell and N. G. Mankiw (1989)--that for a number of industrial countries estimates of Cochrane's measure of persistence are generally very high though different and that a subgroup of countries with high output persistence have low relative output persistence--can be largely accounted for by the difference in each country between its pre-1974 and post-1973 mean growth rates. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Demery, D & Duck, N W, 1992. "Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1094-1101, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:102:y:1992:i:414:p:1094-101
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    Cited by:

    1. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2003. "A Univariate Analysis of Unemployment and Inflation in Italy: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 23(2), November.
    2. Robert Anderton, 1997. "Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 17 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 22-38, March.
    3. Massimo Caruso, 2004. "Infrequent Shocks, Output Persistence and Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 243-260, March.
    4. McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2010. "Persistence and time-varying coefficients," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 85-88, July.
    5. Luis A. Gil-Alanaa, 2005. "Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the brazilian inflation rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 193-207, January.
    6. Kevin Lee, 1998. "Cross-country interdependencies in growth dynamics: A model of output growth in the G7 economies, 1960–1994," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(3), pages 367-403, September.
    7. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing of unit roots and other fractionally integrated hypotheses in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 101-113, January.
    8. Ragacs, Christian & Steinberger, Thomas & Zagler, Martin, 1998. "Growth theories and the persistence of output fluctuations. The case of Austria," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 60, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    9. Nagakura, Daisuke, 2008. "A note on the two assumptions of standard unobserved components models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 123-125, July.
    10. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    11. Christian Ragacs & Martin Zagler, 2002. "Persistence of Shocks to Output in Austria and Theories of Economic Growth," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 305-317, December.
    12. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004. "A joint test of fractional integration and structural breaks at a known period of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 691-700, September.
    13. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.

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