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Structural Change and the Order of Integration in Univariate Time Series

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  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    ()
    (Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Universidad de Navarra, Edificio Biblioteca, Entrada Este, 31080 Pamplona, Spain)

Abstract

In this article I investigate whether the presence of structural breaks affects inference on the order of integration in univariate time series. For this purpose, we make use of a version of the tests of Robinson (1994) which allows us to test unit and fractional roots in the presence of deterministic changes. Several Monte Carlo experiments conducted across the paper show that the tests perform relatively well in the presence of both mean and slope breaks. The tests are applied to annual data on German real GDP, the results showing that the series may be well described in terms of a fractional model with a structural slope break due to World War II.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (04)
Pages: 239-254

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:23:y:2004:i:3:p:239-254

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988. "Searching For a Break in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
  3. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2001. "A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, December.
  4. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4d60t4jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  5. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
  7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  8. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-68, July.
  9. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
  10. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. " Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-45, June.
  11. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
  12. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  13. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
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