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Do real exchange rates have autoregressive unit roots? a test under the alternative of long memory and breaks

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Michael Dueker
Apostolos Serletis

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Abstract

In this paper, we estimate (by maximum likelihood) the parameters of univariate fractionally integrated real exchange rate time series models, and test for autoregressive unit roots on the alternative of a covariance stationary long-memory process. We use quarterly dollar-based real exchange rates (since 1957) for seventeen OECD countries, and that the finding of unit autoregressive roots does not go away even with this more sophisticated alternative.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2000-016.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-016

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates Time-series analysis

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Serletis, Apostolos & Zimonopoulos, Grigorios, 1997. "Breaking Trend Functions in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Seventeen OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 781-802, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
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  8. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alston Flynn, N. & Boucher, Janice L., 1993. "Tests of long-run Purchasing Power Parity using alternative methodologies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 109-122. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Apostolos Serletis, 1994. "Maximum likelihood cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: Evidence from seventeen OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 476-493, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Phylaktis, Kate & Kassimatis, Yiannis, 1994. "Does the real exchange rate follow a random walk? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 476-495, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "The dynamics of the real exchange rates in Europe: a comparative study across countries using fractional integration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 429-432, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ata Assaf, 2004. "Rescaled variance analysis of real exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 303-306, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad, 2005. "The validity of purchasing power parity hypothesis for eleven middle eastern countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 135-149, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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