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Do real exchange rates have autoregressive unit roots? a test under the alternative of long memory and breaks

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  • Michael Dueker
  • Apostolos Serletis

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate (by maximum likelihood) the parameters of univariate fractionally integrated real exchange rate time series models, and test for autoregressive unit roots on the alternative of a covariance stationary long-memory process. We use quarterly dollar-based real exchange rates (since 1957) for seventeen OECD countries, and that the finding of unit autoregressive roots does not go away even with this more sophisticated alternative.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2000-016.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-016

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Time-series analysis;

References

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  1. Phylaktis, Kate & Kassimatis, Yiannis, 1994. "Does the real exchange rate follow a random walk? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 476-495, August.
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  3. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  4. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  5. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December.
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  7. Serletis, Apostolos & Zimonopoulos, Grigorios, 1997. "Breaking Trend Functions in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Seventeen OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 781-802, October.
  8. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  9. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  10. Alston Flynn, N. & Boucher, Janice L., 1993. "Tests of long-run Purchasing Power Parity using alternative methodologies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 109-122.
  11. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
  12. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  13. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  14. Apostolos Serletis, 1994. "Maximum likelihood cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: Evidence from seventeen OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 476-493, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Ata Assaf, 2004. "Rescaled variance analysis of real exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 303-306.
  2. Ata Assaf, 2006. "Nonlinear Trend Stationarity in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nonlinear ADF tests," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 283-294, November.
  3. McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2010. "Persistence and time-varying coefficients," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 85-88, July.
  4. Coe, Patrick J. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2002. "Bounds tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 179-199, January.
  5. Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "The dynamics of the real exchange rates in Europe: a comparative study across countries using fractional integration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 429-432.
  6. Assaf, Ata, 2008. "Nonstationarity in real exchange rates using unit root tests with a level shift at unknown time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 269-278.

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