IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v77y2014icp641-666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach

Author

Listed:
  • Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo
  • Mediavilla, Margarita
  • de Castro, Carlos
  • Carpintero, Óscar
  • Miguel, Luis Javier

Abstract

The progressive reduction of high-quality-easy-to-extract energy is a widely recognized and already ongoing process. Although depletion studies for individual fuels are relatively abundant, few of them offer a global perspective of all energy sources and their potential future developments, and even fewer include the demand of the socio-economic system.

Suggested Citation

  • Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:77:y:2014:i:c:p:641-666
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.063
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214011219
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.063?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ward Anseeuw & Mathieu Boche & Thomas Breu & Markus Giger & Jann Lay & Peter Messerli & Kerstin Nolte, 2012. "Transnational land deals for agriculture in the global south," Post-Print hal-02875924, HAL.
    2. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
    3. Harmsen, J.H.M. & Roes, A.L. & Patel, M.K., 2013. "The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-73.
    4. Benes, Jaromir & Chauvet, Marcelle & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Mursula, Susanna & Selody, Jack, 2015. "The future of oil: Geology versus technology," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 207-221.
    5. Guseo, Renato, 2011. "Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5572-5577, September.
    6. Bueno, Gorka, 2012. "Analysis of scenarios for the reduction of energy consumption and GHG emissions in transport in the Basque Country," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 1988-1998.
    7. Carleton Schade & David Pimentel, 2010. "Population crash: prospects for famine in the twenty-first century," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 245-262, April.
    8. Furtado, Andre T. & Suslick, Saul B., 1993. "Forecasting of petroleum consumption in Brazil using the intensity of energy technique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 958-968, September.
    9. Adelman, M A, 1990. "Mineral Depletion, with Special Reference to Petroleum," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-10, February.
    10. Saddler, Hugh & Diesendorf, Mark & Denniss, Richard, 2007. "Clean energy scenarios for Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1245-1256, February.
    11. Bithas, K. & Kalimeris, P., 2013. "Re-estimating the decoupling effect: Is there an actual transition towards a less energy-intensive economy?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 78-84.
    12. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    13. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
    14. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    15. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2009. "Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 166-180, January.
    16. Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
    17. David McCollum & Nico Bauer & Katherine Calvin & Alban Kitous & Keywan Riahi, 2014. "Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 413-426, April.
    18. Ward, James D. & Mohr, Steve H. & Myers, Baden R. & Nel, Willem P., 2012. "High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 598-604.
    19. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    20. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. Ward Anseeuw & Mathieu Boche & Thomas Breu & Markus Giger & Jann Lay & Peter Messerli & Kerstin Nolte, 2012. "Transnational land deals for agriculture in the global south," Post-Print hal-02875924, HAL.
    22. Tverberg, Gail E., 2012. "Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 27-34.
    23. Murphy, David J. & Hall, Charles A.S., 2011. "Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 67-71.
    24. de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Frechoso, Fernando & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Miguel, Luis J., 2014. "A top-down approach to assess physical and ecological limits of biofuels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 506-512.
    25. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    26. Brecha, Robert J., 2008. "Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3492-3504, September.
    27. Dale, Michael, 2012. "Meta-analysis of non-renewable energy resource estimates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 102-122.
    28. Arvesen, Anders & Bright, Ryan M. & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2011. "Considering only first-order effects? How simplifications lead to unrealistic technology optimism in climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7448-7454.
    29. Vivian Scott & Stuart Gilfillan & Nils Markusson & Hannah Chalmers & R. Stuart Haszeldine, 2013. "Last chance for carbon capture and storage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 105-111, February.
    30. Haberl, Helmut & Sprinz, Detlef & Bonazountas, Marc & Cocco, Pierluigi & Desaubies, Yves & Henze, Mogens & Hertel, Ole & Johnson, Richard K. & Kastrup, Ulrike & Laconte, Pierre & Lange, Eckart & Novak, 2012. "Correcting a fundamental error in greenhouse gas accounting related to bioenergy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 18-23.
    31. Graham M Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2008-09, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
    32. Ayres, Robert U., 2007. "On the practical limits to substitution," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 115-128, February.
    33. Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & Franco, Carol & Lawn, Philip & Talberth, John & Jackson, Tim & Aylmer, Camille, 2013. "Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 57-68.
    34. Baksi, Soham & Green, Chris, 2007. "Calculating economy-wide energy intensity decline rate: The role of sectoral output and energy shares," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6457-6466, December.
    35. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    36. de Castro, Carlos & Mediavilla, Margarita & Miguel, Luis Javier & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "Global solar electric potential: A review of their technical and sustainable limits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 824-835.
    37. Schenk, Niels J. & Moll, Henri C., 2007. "The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2-3), pages 521-535, August.
    38. Mathieu Boche & Ward Anseeuw & T. Kapuya & S. Aubin & I. Sunga, 2012. "Global Land Deals," Post-Print hal-03072578, HAL.
    39. Richard Heinberg & David Fridley, 2010. "The end of cheap coal," Nature, Nature, vol. 468(7322), pages 367-369, November.
    40. Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
    41. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Warr, Benjamin, 2013. "The underestimated contribution of energy to economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-88.
    42. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    43. Ehrlich, Paul R., 1989. "The limits to substitution: Meta-resource depletion and a new economic-ecological paradigm," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 9-16, February.
    44. de Castro, Carlos & Mediavilla, Margarita & Miguel, Luis Javier & Frechoso, Fernando, 2011. "Global wind power potential: Physical and technological limits," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6677-6682, October.
    45. Ward Anseeuw & Mathieu Boche & Thomas Breu & Markus Giger & Jann Lay & Peter Messerli & Kerstin Nolte, 2012. "Transnational land deals for agriculture in the global south," Working Papers hal-02875924, HAL.
    46. Stern, David I., 1997. "Limits to substitution and irreversibility in production and consumption: A neoclassical interpretation of ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 197-215, June.
    47. Höök, Mikael & Fantazzini, Dean & Angelantoni, André & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy," MPRA Paper 46957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. de Vries, Bert J.M. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique M., 2007. "Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2590-2610, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    2. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    3. Rye, Craig D. & Jackson, Tim, 2018. "A review of EROEI-dynamics energy-transition models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 260-272.
    4. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    5. Andreas Makoto Hein & Jean-Baptiste Rudelle, 2020. "Energy Limits to the Gross Domestic Product on Earth," Working Papers hal-02570677, HAL.
    6. Andreas M. Hein & Jean-Baptiste Rudelle, 2020. "Energy Limits to the Gross Domestic Product on Earth," Papers 2005.05244, arXiv.org.
    7. Ignacio Mauleón, 2020. "Economic Issues in Deep Low-Carbon Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-32, August.
    8. Giorgia Giovannetti & Elisa Ticci, 2013. "Biofuel Development and Large-Scale Land Deals in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_27.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    9. Lukáš Režný & Vladimír Bureš, 2019. "Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-25, July.
    10. Nieto, Jaime & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis J. & de Blas, Ignacio, 2020. "Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Giger, Markus & Mutea, Emily & Kiteme, Boniface & Eckert, Sandra & Anseeuw, Ward & Zaehringer, Julie G., 2020. "Large agricultural investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki Area: Inventory and analysis of business models," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Kleemann, Linda & Thiele, Rainer, 2015. "Rural welfare implications of large-scale land acquisitions in Africa: A theoretical framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 269-279.
    13. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    14. Romy Santpoort, 2020. "The Drivers of Maize Area Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa. How Policies to Boost Maize Production Overlook the Interests of Smallholder Farmers," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, February.
    15. Post Lori & Issa Tariq & Schmitz Andrew & Oehmke James, 2021. "Enabling the Environment for Private Sector Investment: Impact on Food Security and Poverty," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 25-37, May.
    16. Chamberlin, Jordan & Jayne, T. S., 2017. "Farmland Concentration And Rural Income Growth: Evidence From Tanzania," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 265608, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    17. Marcello De Maria, 2019. "Understanding Land in the Context of Large-Scale Land Acquisitions: A Brief History of Land in Economics," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    18. Nolte, Kerstin & Voget-Kleschin, Lieske, 2014. "Consultation in Large-Scale Land Acquisitions: An Evaluation of Three Cases in Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 654-668.
    19. William G. Martin & Ravi Arvind Palat, 2014. "Asian Land Acquisitions in Africa: Beyond the ‘New Bandung’ or a ‘New Colonialism’?," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 3(1), pages 125-150, April.
    20. Margherita Scoppola & Margherita Scoppola, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investments and trade in agriculture: an incomplete contracts approach," FOODSECURE Working papers 49, LEI Wageningen UR.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:77:y:2014:i:c:p:641-666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.