A smooth-transition model of the Australian unemployment rate
AbstractModels of the aggregate unemployment rate have traditionally been estimated from structural models of the labour market or in a linear single-equation framework. However, theory as well as evidence suggest that the unemployment rate is asymmetric and should be modelled in a non-linear framework. In this paper the unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as a non-linear function of aggregate demand and real wages. Negative changes in aggregate demand cause the unemployment rate to rise rapidly, while real wage rigidity contributes its to slow adjustment back towards a lower level of unemployment. The model is developed by exploiting recent developments in automated model-selection procedures.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 1002.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 22 May 2002
Date of revision: 01 Jul 2003
unemployment; non-linearity; dynamic modelling; aggregate demand; real wages;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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