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A smooth-transition model of the Australian unemployment rate

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Author Info
Gunnar Bårdsen () (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
Stan Hurn () (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)
Zoë McHugh (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)

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Abstract

Models of the aggregate unemployment rate have traditionally been estimated from structural models of the labour market or in a linear single-equation framework. However, theory as well as evidence suggest that the unemployment rate is asymmetric and should be modelled in a non-linear framework. In this paper the unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as a non-linear function of aggregate demand and real wages. Negative changes in aggregate demand cause the unemployment rate to rise rapidly, while real wage rigidity contributes its to slow adjustment back towards a lower level of unemployment. The model is developed by exploiting recent developments in automated model-selection procedures.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 1002.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 22 May 2002
Date of revision: 01 Jul 2003
Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:1002

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Related research
Keywords: unemployment non-linearity dynamic modelling aggregate demand real wages

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Randall E. Parker & Philip Rothman, . "The Current Depth of Recession and Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Working Papers 9729, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Randall Parker & Philip Rothman, 1998. "The Current Depth-of-Recession and Unemployment-Rate Forecasts," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 2(4), pages 159-177. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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  11. Bruce Hansen, 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  13. Tom Valentine, 1993. "The Sources of Unemployment: A Simple Econometric Analysis," Working Paper Series 32, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  14. Goodridge, Stephen & Harding, Don & Lloyd, Peter, 1995. "The Long Term Growth In Unemployment," MPRA Paper 3706, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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