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Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Evidence from the Australian Labour Markets

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Author Info
Maurice Peat (Discipline of Finance, University of Sydney)
Max Stevenson (Discipline of Finance, University of Sydney)
Abstract

Cyclical asymmetry has been recognised as a nonlinear phenomenonin recent studies examining unemployment rate time series. In this paper we use a number of established and new tests for identifying nonlinearities of the bilinear (BL), exponential autoregressive (EXPAR), smooth transition autoregressive (STAR), and self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) types as they occur in time series of the seasonally differenced logarithm of monthly Australian aggregate and regional unemployment rates. After identifying nonlinearity of a particular form within a given time series, the appropriate model is fitted and representations from the model analysed for their cyclical behaviour.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/finance/research/wpapers/wp37.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 37.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:37

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Related research
Keywords: asymmetry; unemployment; dynamic; nonlinear dependence;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Cao, C Q & Tsay, R S, 1992. "Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis of Stock Volatilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S165-85, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Philip Rothman, . "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," Working Papers 9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
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  10. Rita Luukkonen & Timo Terasvirta, 1991. "Testing Linearity of Economic Time Series against Cyclical Asymmetry," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 20-21, pages 07, Octobre-m. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bruce Mizrach, 1995. "A Simple Nonparametric Test for Independence," Departmental Working Papers 199523, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working Papers 88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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