Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets

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Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets

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Acemoglu, Daron
Scott, Andrew

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Abstract

This paper examines the connection between the business cycle, nonlinearities, and asymmetries in the U.K. labor market. The economy is shown to display cyclical asymmetries; stochastic properties of variables such as employment, unemployment, real wages, and the unemployment-vacancy ratio crucially depend upon the state of the business cycle. The authors show that, in most cases, conditioning on the state of the cycle removes residual nonlinearities and is more successful than the linear and a number of nonlinear time-series models. The robustness of the authors' findings is confirmed using a variety of diagnostics and alternative measures of the cycle. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 104 (1994)
Issue (Month): 427 (November)
Pages: 1303-23
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:104:y:1994:i:427:p:1303-23

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Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, . "Capital Shortages and Asymmetries in UK Unemployment," Working Papers 9607, University of East London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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- Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998. "Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 02, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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- Chris R. Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Predicting Uk Business Cycle Regimes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 134, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Chris Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0953, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
- Birchenhall, Chris R & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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- Clements, M.C. & Krolzig, H.-M., 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 9958, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
Spyros Andreopoulos, 2006. "The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/592, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
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Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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Akram,Q.F. & Nymoen,R., 2001. "Employment behaviour in slack and tight labour markets," Memorandum 27/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
D. Jones & Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1996. "Does the Process of Spatial Aggregation of U.K. Unemplyment Rate Series Serve to Induce or Remove Evidence of Asymmetry in the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 67, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
Karen Mumford & Peter N Smith, . "Men, Women and the Hiring Function," Discussion Papers 99/16, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
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- Mumford, Karen & Smith, Peter N, 2000. "Men, Women and the Hiring Function," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 374-85, December.
Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2002. "A smooth-transition model of the Australian unemployment rate," Working Paper Series 1002, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Working Papers 185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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- Krolzig, H-M. & Marcellino, M. & Mizon, G.E., 2001. "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0105, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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