Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market
Cyclical asymmetry has been recognised as a nonlinear phenomenonin recent studies examining unemployment rate time series. In this paper we use a number of established and new tests for identifying nonlinearities of the bilinear (BL), exponential autoregressive (EXPAR), smooth transition autoregressive (STAR), and self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) types as they occur in time series of the seasonally differenced logarithm of monthly Australian aggregate and regional unemployment rates. After identifying nonlinearity of a particular form within a given time series, the appropriate model is fitted and representations from the model analysed for their cyclical behaviour.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1995. "Testing for Nonlinearities in Economic and Financial Time Series," Working Paper Series 48, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986.
"Hysteresis and Unemployment,"
430, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Rothman, Philip, 1988.
"Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle,"
88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Blatt, John M, 1978. "On the Econometric Approach to Business-Cycle Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 292-300, July.
- Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1988.
"Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Blatt, John Markus, 1980. "On the Frisch Model of Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 467-79, November.
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
- Weiss, Andrew A, 1986. "ARCH and Bilinear Time Series Models: Comparison and Combination," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 59-70, January.
- Philip Rothman, .
"Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates,"
9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Bruce Mizrach, 1995. "A Simple Nonparametric Test for Independence," Departmental Working Papers 199523, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Cao, C Q & Tsay, R S, 1992. "Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis of Stock Volatilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S165-85, Suppl. De.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-23, November.
- Frank, Murray Z. & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "Some evidence concerning macroeconomic chaos," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:30:y:1996:i:3:p:353-368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.