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Vicious and Virtuous Circles - the Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA

Author

Listed:
  • Ruthira Naraidoo

    (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies)

  • Patrick Minford

    (Cardiff Business School, Aberconway Building, Cardiff University)

  • Kent Matthews

    (Cardiff Business School, Aberconway Building, Cardiff University)

Abstract

This paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment. This model is applied to the UK and the US interwar period which is remembered as the decade of mass unemployment. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated equilibrium path of unemployment as a reaction to shocks (mainly demand in nature) and the institutional structure of the economy. The channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The reduced form results obtained confirm a pattern of unemployment behaviour in which unemployment moves between high and low equilibria in response to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford & Kent Matthews, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - the Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/08, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2006/08
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    File URL: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/wpapers/kerp0608.pdf
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    Cited by:

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    2. Naveen Srinivasan & Pratik Mitra, 2016. "Interwar Unemployment in the UK and the US: Old and New Evidence," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 5(1), pages 96-112, June.
    3. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    4. Naveen Srinivasan & Pratik Mitra, 2014. "The European unemployment problem: its cause and cure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 57-73, August.
    5. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2011. "Multiple equilibria in Spanish unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-80, February.
    6. Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2008. "Vicious and virtuous circles -- The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 605-614, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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