IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/wpaper/67.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does the Process of Spatial Aggregation of U.K. Unemplyment Rate Series Serve to Induce or Remove Evidence of Asymmetry in the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • D. Jones
  • Maurice Peat

    (Discipline of Finance, University of Sydney)

  • Max Stevenson

    (Discipline of Finance, University of Sydney)

Abstract

Asymmetry in the business cycle has been recognised as a nonlinear phenomenon by a number of recent studies which have examined unemployment rate series in North America, Europe and Australia. While many of these studies hypothesise that linear modelling techniques are inadequate for modelling aggregate unemployment rate series, other studies provide evidence to the contrary. Further conflicting results emerge from studies which attempt to answer the questions as to whether nonlinearities in the disaggregated data are driving nonlinear structure in the aggregated series or, whether nonlinearities are being masked by the disaggregation process? Using U.K. aggregate and regional unemployment rate data, this study seeks to answer to these questions. Analysing the dynamics of the appropriate best-fitting linear and nonlinear models indicates whether nonlinearities are present in the aggregate series and whether the process of aggregation across spatial market series serves to induce or remove any evidence of nonlinearity in the aggreagate series.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Jones & Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1996. "Does the Process of Spatial Aggregation of U.K. Unemplyment Rate Series Serve to Induce or Remove Evidence of Asymmetry in the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 67, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:67
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp67.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank, Murray & Sayers, Chera & Stengos, Thanasis, 1993. "Evidence concerning non-linear structure in Canadian provincial unemployment rates," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 333-343, December.
    2. Peat, Maurice & Stevenson, Max, 1996. "Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 353-368, September.
    3. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    4. Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-1323, November.
    7. Gerard A. Pfann, 1991. "Employment and business cycle asymmetries: a data based study," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 39, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Cao, C Q & Tsay, R S, 1992. "Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis of Stock Volatilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 165-185, Suppl. De.
    9. Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    10. Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1995. "Testing for Nonlinearities in Economic and Financial Time Series," Working Paper Series 48, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Frank, Murray Z. & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "Some evidence concerning macroeconomic chaos," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438.
    12. Weiss, Andrew A, 1986. "ARCH and Bilinear Time Series Models: Comparison and Combination," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 59-70, January.
    13. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Duncan Ford) or (Marina Grazioli). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sfutsau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.