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Modelling Volatility by Variance Decomposition

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  • Cristina Amado

    ()
    (University of Minho and NIPE)

  • Timo Teräsvirta

    ()
    (Aarhus University, School of Economics and Management and CREATES)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the variance of the model to have a smooth time-varying structure of either additive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterisations describe both nonlinearity and structural change in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. The main focus is on the multiplicative decomposition that decomposes the variance into an unconditional and conditional component. A modelling strategy for the time-varying GARCH model based on the multiplicative decomposition of the variance is developed. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspeci?cation tests. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice. The results show that the long memory type behaviour of the sample autocorrelation functions of the absolute returns can also be explained by deterministic changes in the unconditional variance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2011-01.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2011-01

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: Conditional heteroskedasticity; Structural change; Lagrange multiplier test; Misspeci?cation test; Nonlinear time series; Time-varying parameter model.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. BAUWENS, Luc & DUFAYS, Arnaud & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V.K., 2011. "Marginal likelihood for Markov-switching and change-point GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011013, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2013. "Generalizing smooth transition autoregressions," CEIS Research Paper 294, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 15 Oct 2013.
  4. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Lin, Edward M.H., 2014. "Bayesian estimation of smoothly mixing time-varying parameter GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 194-209.
  5. Cristina Amado & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series," CREATES Research Papers 2012-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2014. "Macro-Finance Determinants of the Long-Run Stock-Bond Correlation: The DCC-MIDAS Specification," CREATES Research Papers 2014-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. VAN BELLEGEM, Sébastien, 2011. "Locally stationary volatility modelling," CORE Discussion Papers 2011041, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Proietti, Tommaso, 2014. "Exponential Smoothing, Long Memory and Volatility Prediction," MPRA Paper 57230, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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