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L'effet des politiques budgétaires sur l'activité : une fonction des conditions conjoncturelles et du régime budgétaire ?

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  • Pierre-Yves Hénin
  • Pape N'Diaye

Abstract

[fre] An evaluation of interactions between macroeconomic activity and fiscal policy measured by a balance variable proves disappointing if carried out using a linear reduced-form VAR model. This study adopts an alternative representation, based on Hamilton''s work, which allows a model''s coefficients to vary according to the phase of the cycle and the fiscal system. The effect of fiscal policy on activity is thus reappraised for four OECD countries, first as a function of the cyclical phase and then of mixed systems in relation to cyclical conditions and fiscal policy trends. In several cases, non-neutral, classical or Keynesian effects on the budget were found to be specific to certain systems, although they did not emerge in a linear model. The American situation seemed to be closest to traditional a priori macroeconomics, with significant Keynesian effects in recession. [eng] Effect of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity : A Function of Cyclical Conditions and the Fiscal System ? . by Pierre-Yves Hénin and Pape N''Diaye . An evaluation of interactions between macroeconomic activity and fiscal policy measured by a balance variable proves disappointing if carried out using a linear reduced-form VAR model. This study adopts an alternative representation, based on Hamilton''s work, which allows a model''s coefficients to vary according to the phase of the cycle and the fiscal system. The effect of fiscal policy on activity is thus reappraised for four OECD countries, first as a function of the cyclical phase and then of mixed systems in relation to cyclical conditions and fiscal policy trends. In several cases, non-neutral, classical or Keynesian effects on the budget were found to be specific to certain systems, although they did not emerge in a linear model. The American situation seemed to be closest to traditional a priori macroeconomics, with significant Keynesian effects in recession. . .

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Yves Hénin & Pape N'Diaye, 2001. "L'effet des politiques budgétaires sur l'activité : une fonction des conditions conjoncturelles et du régime budgétaire ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 73-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_147_1_6215
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6215
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6215
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