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Basis variations and regime shifts in the oil futures market

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  • Wai Mun Fong
  • Kim Hock See
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    Abstract

    The conditional volatility of crude oil futures returns is modelled as a regime switching process. The model features transition probabilities that are functions of the basis. Consistent with the theory of storage, in volatile periods, an increase in backwardation is associated with an increase in the likellihood of switching to or remaining in the high-volatility state. Conditional on regimes, GARCH persistence is significantly reduced. Out-of-sample tests show that incorporating regime shifts improves the accuracy of short-term volatility forecasts.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1351847032000082808
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 499-513

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:9:y:2003:i:5:p:499-513

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    Related research

    Keywords: crude oil futures; conditional volatility; regime switching; forecasting; GARCH persistence;

    References

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    1. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
    2. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    3. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
    5. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399.
    6. Bailey, Warren & Chang, K C, 1993. " Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 555-73, June.
    7. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
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    Cited by:
    1. Lean, H.H. & McAleer, M.J. & Wong, W.K., 2010. "Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
    3. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," CARF F-Series CARF-F-201, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-31, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Aug 2013.
    5. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approach," Working Papers in Economics 10/18, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    6. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
    7. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2012. "Volatility Persistence in Crude Oil Markets," Working Papers hal-00719387, HAL.
    8. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2008. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1970-1983, September.
    9. Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen & Badescu, Alexandru, 2011. "On pricing and hedging options in regime-switching models with feedback effect," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 694-713, May.

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