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Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model

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Author Info
BAUWENS, Luc (UniversitŽ catholique de Louvain (UCL). Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))
PREMINGER, Arie
ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V.K.

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Abstract

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process. Because of path dependence, maximum likelihood estimation is not feasible. By enlarging the parameter space to include the state variables, Bayesian estimation using a Gibbs sampling algorithm is feasible. We illustrate the model on SP500 daily returns.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2007055.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2007055

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Related research
Keywords: GARCH; Markov-switching; Bayesian inference;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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  1. Francq, Christian & Zako an, Jean-Michel, 2002. "Comments On The Paper By Minxian Yang:," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 815-818, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dhiman Das, 2004. "A Bayesian algorithm for a Markov Switching GARCH model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 30, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dhiman Das & B.Hark Yoo, 2004. "A Bayesian MCMC Algorithm for Markov Switching GARCH models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 179, Econometric Society.
  5. Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
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  6. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Abramson, Ari & Cohen, Israel, 2007. "On The Stationarity Of Markov-Switching Garch Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 485-500, June. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dhiman Das & B.Hark Yoo, 2004. "A Bayesian MCMC Algorithm for Markov Switching GARCH models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 451, Econometric Society.
  9. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Markus Haas, 2004. "A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 493-530. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Christian Francq & Michel Roussignol & Jean-Michel Zakoian, . "Conditional heteroskedasticity driven by hidden Markov chains," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1998-86, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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Cited by:
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  1. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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