Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma análise para o período 1995-2007
AbstractEste artigo tem por objetivo avaliar como a administraÃ§Ã£o da dÃvida pÃºblica no Brasil afetou a sua sustentabilidade no perÃodo 1996-2007. A partir de 2003 o gerenciamento da dÃvida brasileira buscou alterar a combinaÃ§Ã£o entre custo e risco,privilegiando o primeiro. Ao utilizar modelos Markov-Switching para captar esta mudanÃ§a de comportamento em sua administraÃ§Ã£o, projeta-se a dÃvida pÃºblica a partir de simulaÃ§Ãµes de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicam que a dÃvida pÃºblica brasileira pode ser considerada sustentÃ¡vel no mÃ©dio prazo. This paper aims to evaluate how public debt management in Brazil has affected its sustainability in the 1996-2007 period. In 2003 Brazilian public debt management changed the trade off between cost minimization and risk minimization emphasizing the first element. Using a Markov-Switching model in order to model this policy change we access fiscal sustainability with Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that Brazilian public debt is sustainable in the medium run.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 200807181514010.
Date of creation: 2008
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- Mário Jorge Mendonça & Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires & Luiz Alberto Medrano, 2008. "Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma Análise para o Período 1995-2007," Discussion Papers 1342, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
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