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Discretion and Cyclicality in Irish Budgetary Management 1969-2003

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Author Info
Colin Hunt (Trinity College Dublin)
Abstract

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality and discretion in Irish fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the level and nature of cyclicality varies across different expenditure components and we introduce a new definition of feasible discretion to take account of political imperatives in budgetary management. We find that overall government expenditure is acyclical and is most heavily influenced by a fiscal parsimony objective. Automatic stabilisers are efficiently counter-cyclical, feasible discretionary government consumption growth is orthogonal to economic fundamentals while feasible discretionary investment growth is strongly pro-cyclical. Using official growth forecasts, we show that feasible discretionary investment growth is deliberately pro-cyclical.

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File URL: http://www.esr.ie/Vol36_3/06_Hunt_Article.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2005
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Article provided by Economic and Social Studies in its journal Economic and Social Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 295-321
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:36:y:2005:i:3:p:295-321

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  8. Aaron Tornell & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Lisa & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Output fluctuations and fiscal policy: U.S. state and local governments 1978-1994," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1271-1310. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1997. "Some Thoughts on Practical Stabilization Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 236-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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