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A multifactor model of stock returns with endogenous regime switching

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Author Info
Patrick Coggi ()
Bogdan Manescu ()
Abstract

We estimate a state-dependent multifactor model with two endogenous states. Its pricing accuracy is slightly superior to that of the Fama and French (1993, 1996) model. We have evidence for dramatically increased factor loadings for distress factors in one state. These results have implications for cost-of-capital calculations, portfolio management, risk analysis and other applications.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 with number 2004-01.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2004:2004-01

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Related research
Keywords: Empirical asset pricing; endogenous regime switching; state-dependent models; nonstandard maximum-likelihood estimation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Value versus Growth: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1975-1999, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Eric Ghysels, 1995. "On Stable Factor Structures in the Pricing of Risk," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-16, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1995. "Multifactor models do not explain deviations from the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 3-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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