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The Dividend Pricing Model: New Evidence from the Korean Housing Market

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  • Min Hwang

    ()

  • John Quigley

    ()

  • Jae-young Son

    ()

Abstract

It is generally conceded that dividend pricing models are poor predictors of asset prices. This finding is sometimes attributed to excess volatility or to a dividend process manipulated by firm managers. In this paper, we present rather powerful panel tests of the dividend pricing relation using a unique data set in which dividends are set by market forces independent of managers' preferences. We rely on observations on the market for condominium dwellings in Korea—perhaps the only market in which information on dividends and prices is publicly and continuously available to consumers and investors. We extend the “dividend-price ratio model” to panels of housing returns and rents differentiated by type and location. We find broad support for the dividend pricing model during periods both before and after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998, suggesting that the market for housing assets in Korea has been remarkably efficient. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 205-228

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:32:y:2006:i:3:p:205-228

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

Related research

Keywords: Housing price; Rent; Present value; Asset prices;

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References

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  1. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
  2. Yoosoon Chang & Wonho Song, 2002. "Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependency and Heterogeneity," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B5-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  3. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  5. Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
  6. Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  7. Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. " Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-60, September.
  8. repec:fth:calaec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Craine, Roger, 1993. "Rational bubbles : A test," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 829-846.
  10. Brent W. Ambrose & Sunwoong Kim, 2003. "Modeling the Korean Chonsei Lease Contract," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 53-74, 03.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Philippe Bracke, 2013. "House Prices and Rents: Micro Evidence from a Matched Dataset in Central London," SERC Discussion Papers 0127, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  2. Sae Park & Doo Bahng & Yun Park, 2010. "Price Run-up in Housing Markets, Access to Bank Lending and House Prices in Korea," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 332-367, April.
  3. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
  4. Park, Donghyun & Xiao, Qin, 2009. "Housing Prices and the Role of Speculation: The Case of Seoul," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 146, Asian Development Bank.
  5. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Discussion Papers 00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  6. Philippe Bracke, 2013. "House Prices and Rents: Micro Evidence from a Matched Dataset in Central London_x0003_," ERSA conference papers ersa13p112, European Regional Science Association.
  7. Qin Xiao & Donghyun Park, 2010. "Seoul housing prices and the role of speculation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 619-644, June.
  8. Heeho Kim & SaeWoon Park & Sun Hye Lee, 2012. "House Price and Bank Lending in a Premium Submarket in Korea," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 1-42.
  9. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2009. "Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2150-2163, November.
  10. Hoon Cho & Kyung-Hwan Kim & James Shilling, 2012. "Seemingly Irrational but Predictable Price Formation in Seoul’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 526-542, May.

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