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Asymmetric response to monetary policy surprises at the long-end of the yield curve

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  • Demiralp, Selva
  • Yılmaz, Kamil

Abstract

This paper investigates the responsiveness of asset markets to monetary policy path revisions. Using federal funds futures contracts to extract near-term path revisions, we find that the responsiveness of longer term Treasury securities to path revisions is significantly asymmetric, the magnitude of which increases during tightenings and decreases during easings. These findings blend nicely with the earlier literature that documents asymmetric effects of monetary policy on output.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 404-418

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:404-418

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Keywords: Asymmetric monetary policy; Yield curve; Federal funds futures;

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References

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  1. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  2. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, June.
  3. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
  4. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  6. Donald P. Morgan, 1993. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 21-33.
  7. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
  8. Selva Demiralp, 2008. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Expectations Hypothesis at the Short End of the Yield Curve," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0802, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  9. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, 04.
  12. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. " Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
  13. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  14. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
  15. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
  16. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-89.
  17. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 0354, European Central Bank.
  18. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "Market anticipation of monetary policy actions and interest rate transmission to US Treasury market rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 545-551.

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