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Monetary policy surprises and the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve

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  • Demiralp, Selva

Abstract

We test the expectations hypothesis by analyzing changes in three-month T-Bill rates (TB3) after FOMC meetings. By estimating the revisions in expectations of future overnight rates, we find a one-to-one relationship between changes in TB3 and path revisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 101 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 1-3

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:101:y:2008:i:1:p:1-3

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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Keywords: Expectations hypothesis Policy path revisions;

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  1. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
  2. Demiralp, Selva & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Asymmetric response to monetary policy surprises at the long-end of the yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 404-418.
  3. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2011. "Volatility, Money Market Rates, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1129, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

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