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Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rates

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Author Info
Shu Wu (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)
Abstract

This paper documents some new empirical results about the monetary policy and long-term interest rates in the United States. It shows that changes in the monetary policy stance are more predictable to the bond market in the 1990s than in the 1970s. This shift in the predictability of the monetary policy actions affects the policy¡¯s impact on long-term interest rates as well as the forecasting power of the yield spread for the future changes in short-term interest rates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 200512.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision: Apr 2005
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:200512

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; interest rates; predictability;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  2. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yash P. Mehra, 1996. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-49. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  7. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. M. A. Akhtar, 1995. "Monetary Policy And Long-Term Interest Rates: A Survey Of Empirical Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 110-130, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  13. Joe Lange & Brian Sack & William Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term real interest rates," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 39-52. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Wendy Edelberg & David Marshall, 1996. "Monetary policy shocks and long-term interest rates," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar, pages 2-17. [Downloadable!]
  20. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Juha Seppala & Federico Ravenna, 2005. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2005 Meeting Papers 804, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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