Does asymmetric information play a role in explaining the Asian currency crisis? Application to Indonesian and Malaysian cases using a two-state Markov Switching model
AbstractThis paper aims at establishing a relationship between disparity of information and the probability of speculative attack in explaining the Asian crisis. We apply the general framework of Markov-Switching models to the differential of interest rates (DIR), subsequently in Indonesia and Malaysia. We allow dependency of the transition probabilities over the asymmetric information indicators. The Maximum Likelihood estimators results (MLE) are twofold: (1) an increase of information dispersion among speculators leads to a higher probability of a currency crisis (2) there is a significant asymmetric impact of information disparity as measured by difference between fund price and Net Asset Value (NAV) on the transition probability in the case of Indonesia, while the hypothesis is rejected for Malaysia’s case.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26785.
Date of creation: 12 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Speculative attack ; Global Games ; Asymmetric information ; Markov-Switching Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-MON-2010-11-27 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2010-11-27 (South East Asia)
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