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Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates

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  • Kaminska, Iryna

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Vayanos, Dimitri

    (LSE, CEPR and NBER)

  • Zinna, Gabriele

    ()
    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We estimate structurally a model of the term structure of interest rates that is consistent with no arbitrage but allows for demand pressures. The term structure in our model is determined through the interaction of risk-averse arbitrageurs and preferred-habitat investors with preferences for specific maturities. The model is estimated on US real rates during the 2000s and allows for two factors: one corresponding to the short rate and one to preferred-habitat demand. We find that the puzzling drop in long rates during 2004-05 (Greenspan conundrum) is driven by the demand factor. International reserves, foreign official holdings of longer-term US Treasuries may all be proxies for the preferred-habitat demand factor. For example, foreign purchases in the year to July 2004 appear to have lowered the ten-year rate by about 100 basis points. Foreign purchases have larger effects following periods when arbitrageurs have lost money.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 435.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0435

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Keywords: Foreign reserves; term structure of interest rates; term premium; MCMC;

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  1. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Cited by:
  1. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2012. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale asset purchases: evidence on the importance of local supply," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Laura Jaramillo & Yuanyan Sophia Zhang, 2013. "Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 13/254, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D’Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.

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