Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kaminska, Iryna

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Vayanos, Dimitri

    (LSE, CEPR and NBER)

  • Zinna, Gabriele

    ()
    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We estimate structurally a model of the term structure of interest rates that is consistent with no arbitrage but allows for demand pressures. The term structure in our model is determined through the interaction of risk-averse arbitrageurs and preferred-habitat investors with preferences for specific maturities. The model is estimated on US real rates during the 2000s and allows for two factors: one corresponding to the short rate and one to preferred-habitat demand. We find that the puzzling drop in long rates during 2004-05 (Greenspan conundrum) is driven by the demand factor. International reserves, foreign official holdings of longer-term US Treasuries may all be proxies for the preferred-habitat demand factor. For example, foreign purchases in the year to July 2004 appear to have lowered the ten-year rate by about 100 basis points. Foreign purchases have larger effects following periods when arbitrageurs have lost money.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2011/wp435.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 435.

as in new window
Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0435

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Foreign reserves; term structure of interest rates; term premium; MCMC;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong, 2005. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," 2005 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May.
  4. de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
  5. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips–Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, 04.
  7. Joyce, Michael & Kaminska, Iryna & Lildholdt, Peter, 2008. "Understanding the real rate conundrum: an application of no-arbitrage finance models to the UK real yield curve," Bank of England working papers 358, Bank of England.
  8. Michael J. Fleming, 2002. "Are larger Treasury issues more liquid? Evidence from bill reopenings," Staff Reports 145, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
  13. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
  14. Carroll, Christopher D. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2009. "A tractable model of precautionary reserves, net foreign assets, or sovereign wealth funds," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  15. Michael J. Fleming & Neel Krishnan, 2012. "The microstructure of the TIPS market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 27-45.
  16. In Choi & Jorg Breitung, 2011. "Factor models," Working Papers 1121, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University, revised Dec 2011.
  17. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage: The State of the Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 7738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 14688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Term premia and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2012. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale asset purchases: evidence on the importance of local supply," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D’Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Laura Jaramillo & Yuanyan Sophia Zhang, 2013. "Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 13/254, International Monetary Fund.
  4. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.