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Modeling electricity prices with regime switching models

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Author Info

  • Michael Bierbrauer

    (University of Karlsruhe)

  • Stefan Trueck

    (University of Karlsruhe)

  • Rafal Weron

    (Hugo Steinhaus Center)

Abstract

We address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices with regime switching models. After reviewing the stylized facts about power markets we propose and fit various models to spot prices from the Nordic power exchange. Afterwards we assess their performance by comparing simulated and market prices.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/em/papers/0502/0502005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0502005.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0502005

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 8. Appeared in: Lecture Notes in Computer Science 3039, pp. 859-867.
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Power market; Electricity price modeling; Regime switching model;

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References

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  1. Rafal Weron & Ingve Simonsen & Piotr Wilman, 2003. "Modeling highly volatile and seasonal markets: evidence from the Nord Pool electricity market," Econometrics 0303007, EconWPA.
  2. Weron, Rafal & Przybyłowicz, Beata, 2000. "Hurst analysis of electricity price dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 462-468.
  3. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
  4. Ingve Simonsen, 2001. "Measuring Anti-Correlations in the Nordic Electricity Spot Market by Wavelets," Papers cond-mat/0108033, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2003.
  5. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  6. Rafal Weron & Michael Bierbrauer & Stefan Trück, 2003. "Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching," HSC Research Reports HSC/03/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  7. Simonsen, Ingve, 2003. "Measuring anti-correlations in the nordic electricity spot market by wavelets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 597-606.
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. O'Mahoney, Amy & Denny, Eleanor, 2013. "Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 628-637.
  2. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2009. "Regime-switching models for electricity spot prices: Introducing heteroskedastic base regime dynamics and shifted spike distributions," MPRA Paper 18784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Chernobai, Anna & Burnecki, Krzysztof & Rachev, Svetlozar & Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal, 2005. "Modelling catastrophe claims with left-truncated severity distributions (extended version)," MPRA Paper 10423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Matteo Manera & Massimiliano Serati & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," Working Papers 2008.9, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. Juha Honkatukia & Ville Mälkönen & Adriaan Perrels, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emission Trade System on Finnish Wholesale Electricity Prices," Discussion Papers 405, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  6. Rafał Weron, 2009. "Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 457-473, July.
  7. Kosater, Peter, 2006. "On the impact of weather on German hourly power prices," Discussion Papers in Statistics and Econometrics 1/06, University of Cologne, Department for Economic and Social Statistics.
  8. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
  9. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
  10. Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2012. "Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets," BILTOKI Biltoki;2012-04, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
  11. Janczura, Joanna & Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2012. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," MPRA Paper 39277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
  13. Rafal Weron, 2005. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options," Econometrics 0502003, EconWPA.
  14. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  15. Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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