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Hurst analysis of electricity price dynamics

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Author Info

  • Rafal Weron
  • Beata Przybylowicz

Abstract

The price of electricity is extremely volatile, because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is largely weather dependent, and the reliability of the grid is paramount. However, underlying the process of price returns is a strong mean-reverting mechanism. We study this feature of electricity returns by means of Hurst R/S analysis.

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File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_00_01.pdf
File Function: Final draft, 2000
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/00/01.

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Length: 9 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Physica A 283 (2000) 462-468.
Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc0001

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Related research

Keywords: Econophysics; Electricity price; Mean-reversion; Hurst analysis;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Bierbrauer & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Modeling electricity prices with regime switching models," Econometrics 0502005, EconWPA.
  2. Pakrashi, Vikram & Kelly, Joe & Harkin, Julie & Farrell, Aidan, 2013. "Hurst exponent footprints from activities on a large structural system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1803-1817.
  3. Mulligan, Robert F., 2014. "Multifractality of sectoral price indices: Hurst signature analysis of Cantillon effects in disequilibrium factor markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 252-264.
  4. Erzgräber, Hartmut & Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldívar, José-Manuel & Touchette, Hugo & Gutiérrez, Eugénio & Arrowsmith, David K., 2008. "Time series analysis and long range correlations of Nordic spot electricity market data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6567-6574.
  5. Rypdal, Martin & Løvsletten, Ola, 2013. "Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 194-207.
  6. Marossy, Zita, 2011. "A villamos energia áralakulásának egy új modellje
    [A new model for price movement in electric power]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 253-274.
  7. Rafal Weron & Ingve Simonsen & Piotr Wilman, 2003. "Modeling highly volatile and seasonal markets: evidence from the Nord Pool electricity market," Econometrics 0303007, EconWPA.
  8. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
  9. Rafal Weron, 2001. "Measuring long-range dependence in electricity prices," Papers cond-mat/0103621, arXiv.org.
  10. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Escarela-Perez, Rafael, 2010. "Time-dependent correlations in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-277, March.
  11. Wang, Xiao-Tian & Yan, Hai-Gang & Tang, Ming-Ming & Zhu, En-Hui, 2010. "Scaling and long-range dependence in option pricing III: A fractional version of the Merton model with transaction costs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(3), pages 452-458.
  12. Ladislav KRISTOUFEK & Petra LUNACKOVA, 2013. "Long-term Memory in Electricity Prices: Czech Market Evidence," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 407-424, November.
  13. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Escarela-Perez, R. & Espinosa-Perez, G. & Urrea, R., 2009. "Dynamics of electricity market correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(11), pages 2173-2188.
  14. T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & Michel M. Dacorogna, 2004. "Using the Scaling Analysis to Characterize Financial Markets," Finance 0402014, EconWPA.
  15. Weron, Rafal, 2000. "Energy price risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 127-134.
  16. Krzysztof Burnecki & Grzegorz Kukla & Rafal Weron, 2000. "Property insurance loss distributions," HSC Research Reports HSC/00/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  17. Poullikkas, Andreas & Kellas, Adonis, 2004. "The use of sustainable combined cycle technologies in Cyprus: a case study for the use of LOTHECO cycle," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 521-544, December.
  18. Martin Rypdal & Ola L{\o}vsletten, 2012. "Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes," Papers 1201.6137, arXiv.org.
  19. Malo, Pekka, 2009. "Modeling electricity spot and futures price dependence: A multifrequency approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(22), pages 4763-4779.

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