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Nominal interest rates and the news

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  • Michael D. Bauer

Abstract

How do interest rates react to news? This paper presents a new methodology, based on a simple dynamic term structure model, which provides for an integrated analysis of the effects of monetary policy actions and macroeconomic news on the term structure of interest rates. I find several new empirical results: First, monetary policy directly affects distant forward rates. Second, policy news is more complex than macro news. Third, while payroll news causes the most action in interest rates, it does not affect distant forward rates. Fourth, the term structure response to macro news is consistent with considerable interest rate smoothing.

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  • Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2011-20
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    2. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 003, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    6. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    8. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach(Forthcoming in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-446, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    9. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    10. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.

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    Interest rates; Monetary policy;

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