Are the High-growth Recovery Periods Over?
AbstractWe present evidence about the loss of the so-called ?plucking effect?, that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the ?plucking effect? can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) in its series UFAE and IAE Working Papers with number 772.09.
Date of creation: 20 Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Business cycle characteristics; Great Moderation; High-growth recovery;
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-05-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2009-05-16 (Business Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2009-05-16 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2009-05-16 (Macroeconomics)
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