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Expected Money Growth, Markov Trends and the Instability of Money Demand in the Euro Area

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Author Info
Sylvia Kaufmann () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division)
Peter Kugler () (University of Basel, WWZ, Petersgraben 51, CH-4003 Basel)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the recently documented instability of money demand in the euro area in the framework of a Markov switching trend model. First, we consider a standard flexible price model with stable money demand, rational expectations, and an exogenous income-money ratio which follows a Markov trend. This framework, which implies an influence of expected future money on prices, leads to a cointegrating relationship between (log) prices and the (log of the) money-income ratio with a switching intercept term. Of course, this likely leads to a rejection of cointegration by standard tests and to the erroneous conclusion of an unstable money demand. Second, a more general model allowing for endogeneity and more general dynamics is estimated with Bayesian methods for euro area data from 1975-2003. This exercise provides support for our model and a stable demand for M3 in the euro area.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 131.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 15 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:131

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian cointegration analysis Markov trend Markov chain Monte Carlo money demand.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter Kugler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working Papers 103, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
  4. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2002. "Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 223-249, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Richard Paap & Frank Kleibergen, 2004. "Generalized Reduced Rank Tests using the Singular Value Decomposition," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 195, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kai Carstensen, 2003. "Is European Money Demand Still Stable?," Kiel Working Papers 1179, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-63, October.
    Other versions:
  10. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kugler, Peter, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates and regime shifts: Some empirical results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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