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Asymmetric Shocks, Long-term Bonds and Sovereign Default

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  • Zhu, Junjun
  • Xie, Shiyu

Abstract

We present a sovereign default model with asymmetric shocks and long-term bonds, and solve the model using discrete state dynamic programming. As result, our model matches the Argentinean economy over period 1993Q1-2001Q4 quite well. We show that our model can match high default frequency, high debt/output ratio and other cyclical features, such as countercyclical interest rate and trade balance in emerging countries. Moreover, with asymmetric shocks we are able to match high sovereign spread level and low spread volatility simultaneously in one model, which is till now not well solved. As another contribution of our paper, we propose a simulation-based approach to approximate transition function of output shocks between finite states, which is an indispensable step in discrete state dynamic programming. Comparing to Tauchen’s method, our approach is very flexible in transforming various econometric models to finite state transition function, so that our approach can be widely used in simulating different kinds of discrete state shocks.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28236.

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Date of creation: 18 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28236

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Keywords: Sovereign Default; Asymmetric Shocks; Transition Function; Long-term Bonds;

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  1. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds," Staff Report 410, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  3. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  4. Tauchen, George, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Using Quadrature Methods and Value-Function Iterations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 49-51, January.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
  7. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 11-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
  10. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  11. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  14. Emine Boz, 2007. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? the Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," IMF Working Papers 07/223, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Quantitative properties of sovereign default models: solution methods matter," Working Paper 10-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  16. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
  17. Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2010. "Quantitative Properties of Sovereign Default Models," IMF Working Papers 10/100, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
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