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An Analysis of Regional Business Cycles using Prefectural Composite Indexes in Japan

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  • Asako, Kazumi
  • Onodera, Takashi
  • Ueda, Atsuko
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    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze regional business cycle movements in Japan. We construct regional monthly composite indexes by 47 prefectures over the period 1985-2010. In order to characterize the deviation of regional economies from the nationwide economy, we propose a method to match each prefectural composite index sequence to the national composite index sequence. High performance of the matching analysis indicates that regional deviations involve leads and lags in both the timing of the business cycle and time trends, although certain disparities remain for some prefectures. The analysis also suggests that there is a structural change between the post-bubble era of the 1990s and the long expansion phase of 2002-2008. Only a limited number of prefectures show better performance than the national average, while the majority tend to fall behind during the expansion phase. Also, we investigate the factors that exert influence on prefectural economies, and find that fiscal and monetary measures possibly help stimulate regional economies.

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    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/26492/1/DP603.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 603.

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    Length: 31 p.
    Date of creation: Mar 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:603

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    Keywords: regional business cycle; composite index; structural change; public investment;

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    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    3. Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1998. "Intranational business cycles in the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 289-313, April.
    4. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2010. "The Intranational Business Cycle in Japan," Discussion Paper Series DP2010-19, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    5. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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