Tracking productivity in real time
AbstractBecause volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 12 (2006)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
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- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007.
"Explaining a Productive Decade,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 81-152.
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