German Rapeseed Oil and Biodiesel Pricing under Changing Market Conditions: A Markov-switching Vector Error Correction Model Approach
AbstractWe analyze vertical price transmission in the German biodiesel market studying the relationship between rapeseed oil, soya oil and biodiesel prices. We focus on the period from summer 2002 to late 2007 during which the German biodiesel market developed into the largest market worldwide, mainly driven by political intervention. Tests on the adequacy of a traditional linear vector error correction model provide strong evidence against it and favor a regime-dependent model. We consider the Markov-switching vector error correction model which allows for parameter switching between regimes to be suitable for the question to be analyzed. We find two distinct regimes with differing error-correction behavior. Estimation results indicate that only rapeseed oil prices adjust deviations from the long-run equilibrium between the three prices. Error-correction is found to be strong until 2005; however, it substantially weakens in 2006 and 2007 due to market distorting policy measures such as blending obligations and norms requiring the use of rapeseed oil.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China with number 51032.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Biodiesel; cointegration; nonlinear vector error-correction model; regime dependent model; Markov-switching; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C22; Q11; Q18;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
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