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The impact of oil prices on economic activity in administrated price structure: the case of Tunisia

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  • Necibi, Thameur
  • Issaoui, Fakhri
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    Abstract

    This article has for a core objective the handling of the established relation between oil price variation and certain macroeconomic variables, in this particular case GDP, RMM, CPI, Ex-factory price. The study in Tunisia is based on quarterly and monthly data from the period going from 2000 to 2011 revealed three important facts. First, it showed at the level of the quarterly analysis that the Tunisian authority succeeded in limiting the effect of crude oil price shock, it was approved through an impulse analysis of the dynamic responses, a second important result was revealed at the level of the quarterly analysis and the established long-term relation which showed that the GDP or the industrial production positively and significantly depend on Brent oil price and on the inflation in a structure of administered price. Second at the level of the monthly analysis, the conducted study allowed us to identify the nature of inflation, which is said to the production cost through introducing a new variable which is ex-factory price. Third, the conducted study allowed us to study the asymmetric relation between Brent oil price and the monetary mechanism in an administered price regime.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50420.

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    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50420

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    Keywords: Macroeconomics; oil prices; inflation; asymmetry;

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    1. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
    2. Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, . "Do Oil Price Shocks Matter? Evidence For Some Europesan Countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-02, FEDEA.
    3. Lorde, Troy & Jackman, Mahalia & Thomas, Chrystol, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2708-2716, July.
    4. Mandal, Kumarjit & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Bhoi, Binod B., 2012. "Is the oil price pass-through in India any different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 832-848.
    5. Jaime Casassus & Diego Ceballos, 2010. "Correlation Structure between Inflation and Oil Futures Returns: An Equilibrium Approach," Documentos de Trabajo, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. 373, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    6. Hillard G. Huntington, 1998. "Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 107-132.
    7. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    8. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    9. Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    10. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2008. "Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-289, March.
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