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Coping with a dual shock: The economic effects of COVID-19 and oil price crises on African economies

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  • Azomahou, Théophile T.
  • Ndung’u, Njuguna
  • Ouédraogo, Mahamady

Abstract

Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook’s GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Azomahou, Théophile T. & Ndung’u, Njuguna & Ouédraogo, Mahamady, 2021. "Coping with a dual shock: The economic effects of COVID-19 and oil price crises on African economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721001070
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Oil-dependence; Growth forecast; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment

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